• 6th May 2019
  • Sameer Mungekar
  • 0

1. The US Federal Reserve has ruled out interest rate hikes for the year 2019. This will bring more capital to the Indian Stock and Bond markets. Stock indices will rise, and Bond yields will fall.

2. The probability of Brexit successfully going through the British Parliament is unlikely in my opinion. If Brexit happens, the cost of labour and other inputs will rise in the UK. British and International Companies based in the UK are unlikely to let that happen. So the referendum will get crushed ( even if there is a second referendum). Brexit will not clear the Parliaments approval even if Brexit is delayed by a few months.

3. The major economies in the world including the US, China, Eurozone and Japan are propelled by fiscal and monetary stimulus since the last few years. These economies don’t have the inherent potential to sustain growth due to a low and ageing population, high indebtedness and outsourcing.

4. The biggest companies across the world will continue to grow at the cost of the majority of the global population. Automation, machine learning and artificial intelligence will displace jobs as well as consumer demand leading to concentrated industries and increased economic disparity.

5. I wonder in which year the disparity between the rich and the poor of the world will lead to a civil war like situation. Its already happening in France with the Yellow Vests protesting and disrupting normal life.

6. Terrorism and civil wars happening across the world, especially in the African continent and the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan and other countries, are a result of economic disparity and industry concentration.

7. The situation is also bleak in Latin America with unstable governments and four-digit inflation. Argentina, Venezuela and some other Latin American countries are in deep trouble.

8. The average American has grown poorer by over 20% in the last twenty years, and Europe has become more welcoming to qualified immigrants.

9. The United States is pushing North Korea and Iran towards denuclearisation. They attacked Iraq under the pretext of finding Nuclear weapons. Since America is the most nuclearised state in the world, what gives the American government the moral authority to denuclearise other nations?

10. The American government is imposing sanctions against practically every country which is not in line with their thinking and aspirations. How can they call themselves civilised and ethical?

11. The final question. When a small and insignificant portion of people and companies in the world control all the wealth in the world, who will buy their products and services? Its a question to ponder!

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